Leftist candidate Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact coalition leads in Colombia’s presidential race with 36 percent voter support just over a month before the May 31 first-round election, according to a poll published Tuesday by Spanish firm GAD3, placing him 15 points ahead of his nearest far-right rival among 13 contenders.

The GAD3 survey, based on 1,500 interviews conducted between April 20 and April 22, shows far-right candidate Abelardo De la Espriella in second place with 21 percent, followed by Uribista candidate Paloma Valencia at 13 percent. To win outright in the first round, a candidate must secure more than 50 percent of valid votes—a threshold Cepeda currently does not meet, making a runoff likely.

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In a potential second-round scenario, GAD3 projects Cepeda would defeat De la Espriella by a margin of 46 percent to 35 percent. Against Valencia, Cepeda would win 44 percent to 37 percent.

The results mark the second poll in less than 24 hours to place Cepeda at the top of the field, following a separate survey by Invamer that showed similar trends despite numerical differences between the two firms.

No candidate has yet reached the 50 percent threshold required for a first-round victory. With five weeks remaining until Election Day, the race remains fluid, though GAD3’s data suggests Cepeda holds a structural advantage heading into the final stretch.

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